Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and unleashed chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in scholarly circles but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate with even the basics. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer endorses unification or the status quo. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Debates range over national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unity but refuse greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent official who says: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately lose but both parties has got something to gain from the opposing arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must join the discussion, stated the analyst. "This is about Britain. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
